The World's Plaidiest News Source
2007
Aug
27
Greetings Globe Watchers! Your plaid correspondent just touched down in Paris last nite to attend an affable assembly of amicable ambassadors, all while absorbing vast amounts of Armagnac. French ambassadors that is, drinking that fine-ass French brandy. What the hell am I talking about? I’m talking about a speech given by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to the entire French ambassador squad—it is Nick’s first big speech on France‘s new foreign policy since he took office back in May of this year. And it was a doozy! Remember way back when, when most folks thought of the Frenchies as a bunch of wussies? Oh wait, that was just yesterday…. But hold on folks! Today is a new day, and France has grown a huge set of balls overnite! Check this shit out:
Sarkozy: Iran’s nuclear plans could be “catastrophic”
Sarkozy calls for troop exit from Iraq
Sarkozy boosting French force in Afghanistan
Bush hosts Sarkozy, sans ‘freedom fries’
Talk about radical turn-arounds! What these stories all allude to is that President Nicolas Sarkozy is making a pretty big departure from standard French foreign policy of the last decade or two. For those of you not in the know, here is the deal: France has typically played spoiler to US foreign policy in terms of either not supporting it, or outright opposing it.
Like the current war in Iraq. The Frenchies (under their former President Jacques Chirac) blocked all moves made by the US at the United Nations Security Council to make the Iraq invasion a UN-sanctioned or UN-legitimized war. They refused to support the US, which of course served to piss off the Bush administration and Americans in general—remember when the Congressional cafeteria changed the name of French fries to Freedom fries? Hahahaha what a fucking joke! But to be sure, many Americans still hate the French for their liberal ways and refusal to blindly support US tactics. Many Americans refuse to even drink French wine as part of their protest. Mmmmm…more for me to drink! But once again, I digress…
But the times are a changing my friends! That was the old France, and Nicolas Sarkozy is the new—and much more pro-US—face of the Frenchies. Check the stories above again. He just came to the US and partied with George Bush last month! And the whole damn Bush clan was there too! They fed the poor bastard hot dogs and hamburgers and probably made him play whack-a-mole at the fucking county fair! How hilarious is that? You can think of Sarkozy as the Bush of France if it helps you remember him—he is conservative, pro-business, and much more hawkish than any of his predecessors when it comes to foreign affairs. Which brings us back to the brainstorm of this blog:
When it comes to foreign policy, President Sarkozy is a ballsy son of a bitch. In his speech to the ambassadors today, he unleashed several major points which depart radically from the Chirac administration:
BIG BALLS POINT #1: Sarkozy still thinks the Iraq war was a mistake, and even has balls of steel enough to call for the US to start pulling out troops….BUT, he in the same breath stated that France was now ready to help the international community bring about a political solution to the situation. Damn! That’s new!
BIG BALLS POINT # 2: Sarkozy wants to increase French troops and support to Afghanistan. Damn! That is a huge boost to the US and NATO forces in general which have been begging the international community to do more in that fucked up country. When is the last time you heard about the French wanting to increase troops anywhere? Certainly not in World War II. George Bush must be beaming with pride, as is NATO…particularly since most of the other European NATO countries have been dragging their feet on the Afghan situation. How can other countries not pony up if the French are going to? Damn, they will all have to save face now…
BIG BALLS POINT #3: Sarkozy basically totally agreed with current US foreign policy concerning IRAN. He said that Iran is the biggest threat in the Middle East, and under no circumstances would he sit idly by while they acquired nuclear technology. Shit man, he went as far as to subtly suggest that Iran would be bombed before he let them get the bomb. Damn! Balls-a-plenty! Iran is going to be pissed about that remark! But I’ll bet that George Bush and Dick Cheney cracked open a bottle of Jim Beam in the Oval Office to celebrate the Sarkozy speech. Yee-Ha! They got themselves an ally at last!
Long story short, know who Nick Sarkozy is. Know that he has an extremely similar world outlook as the Bush White House. And know this: we are very likely to see the French being more pro-active on the world stage than they have been since they sent Lafayette over to the colonies to help kick some British ass. We will see the Frenchies start to take a more central role in a lot of the world’s hotspots…be it in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan, or even a drug-free Tour de France.
Sarkozy is going to put the French back in fries. For sure.
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2007
Aug
24
Holy Picachu pebbles!!! Even Godzilla would shit himself over this one! Some fucking lunatic in Japan cut off his little finger, made a DvD of the butchering, and then mailed the finger and the film to the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe! What in the living hell is that all about? Well, I’m glad you asked my friends because its actually a quite important issue in modern Japan right now, for reasons which are completely ignored in the US press…but you want to be smarter than that, so check these out:
Severed pinkie sent to LDP to protest Abe’s Yasukuni no-show
Japanese prime minister skips Yasukuni visit
No Yasukuni visit for Abe, Cabinet on WWII anniversary
What the hell is so important about a shrine that it causing international consternation, internal dissent, and insane people to chop off body parts? Oh…cause its this particular shrine, perhaps the most controversial place for dead people on the planet:
Yasukuni Shrine (literally “peaceful nation shrine”) is a controversial Shinto shrine located in Tokyo that is dedicated to the spirits of soldiers who died fighting on behalf of the Japanese emperor. So what’s the problem? Every country honors its war dead, don’t they? The Yasukuni Shrine also honors a total of 1,068 convicted Japanese war criminals, including 14 executed Class A war criminals, a fact that has engendered protests in a number of neighboring countries who believe their presence indicates a failure on the part of Japan to fully atone for its military past.
The former Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi regularly visited the shrine throughout his long tenure, which consistently served to totally piss off China and South Korea . . .and perhaps even North Korea, but who knows since they are totally whack-ass insane. Why would a shrine visit piss off Korea and China you ask? Because prior to and during World War II, Japan committed all manners of war atrocities in these two countries. Hell, the Japanese essentially ran the entire country of Korea as a slave colony for over 40 years before they were defeated at the end of WWII.
Japan fucked over lots of other countries too during their era of military aggression and expansion, but the Koreans and the Chinese suffered the worst, for the longest. Therefore, it should not surprise you to hear that the leader of today’s Japan going to a shrine to honor dead soldiers really gets China and Korea all fired up. It’s the equivalent of the Germans visiting a war shrine to pay respects to Hitler and the other Nazi war dead. Sound extreme? Yep. But I call ‘em like I see ‘em. Can you even imagine Angela Merkel showing up to pay homage to Hitler at a cemetery? Holy shit! She would be out of office faster than sauerkraut shit through a goose!
And that brings us back to our story of the day: the current Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has decided to try to NOT piss off all of his neighbors, and has therefore declined to visit the shrine. Why would he do that? Because China and Korea are now economic powerhouses in their own right in today’s world, and Japan is not the only big boy in the neighborhood. Abe wants to improve relations as best he can to hedge his bets for security in the future. China is certainly fast becoming a global power on the order of the US…and while Japan has the US as its greatest ally, Abe figures that there is no real point in intentionally pissing off the Chinese on a regular basis.
All sorts of trade and investment go back and forth between all these Asian economic juggernauts (yes, South Korea too—they will soon join the top 10 economies on the plant; Japan and China are already #2 and #4 respectively) and no one in the Japanese leadership wants to risk economic relations. Particularly since the rapidly growing Chinese middle class is quickly becoming Japan’s biggest consumer base for all sorts of great Japanese gadgets and useless shit—like cars and video games and Pokemon shit and DvD players so they can watch a Japanese guy cut off his own finger. Oh yes! What about that freak?
Back to the fingerless freak: not everyone in Japan puts economics or global security as their highest priority, and this dude is one such person. The Japanese are a very nationalist bunch—Japan first baby! Japan number one! Yeah! Picachu kicks ass!—as are lots of folks in lots of different countries. But they do seem to take it a step further sometime…i.e. see World War Two. The dude who cut off his finger thinks the leadership is being weak and wussy by not being proud of Japan‘s past. By the way, he is not totally alone either…lots of folks in Japan would espouse a belief in ethnic superiority to their Asian neighbors. Sound like racism? Yeah, it does to me too. Its no coincidence that Japan is ethnically 99% Japanese people: they don’t really allow any immigration at all, so as to keep Japan purely Japanese.
But that’s why this shit is so fascinating in today’s world: because Japan has to change. They don’t really have a choice. Their declining population is forcing them to rethink their immigration policies, and the rise of their Asian neighbors is forcing them to rethink their diplomatic policies.
And let me end with this little jewel that you otherwise wouldn’t hear about: Abe is trying to be particularly sensitive about this shrine issue, because he doesn’t want the Chinese and Koreans to feel threatened as he ramps up for the next big bombshell which is this: a big bombshell. Huh? WTF? Did I double-type? Nope. Here’s the deal: Shinzo Abe has long been a proponent to scrap the clause in the Japanese constitution that prohibits Japan from having an army and offensive weapons…the Avenger believes that he is about to make concrete moves to chuck out that clause.
And Abe is savvy: he knows that this move will cause an uproar among those same Asian countries that get pissed when anyone visits that war shrine. So he’s not visiting. He wants to be in a position that he can tell the Chinese and Koreans: “Look, we are not re-arming to replay our military past, in fact, I’m really sorry about all that WWII shit, and I’m not even visiting the shrine anymore!” Abe will say that Japan has to re-arm to counter the North Korean threat, as well as to be able to help the US in its global anti-terrorism war—which by the way he actually does really believe. And it doesn’t hurt that the US is a HUGE fan of Japan re-arming, since it will provide a counter to the growth of Chinese power in the region. But that’s a topic for another blog…..
Back to sake shots and sushi sliders. I have to ramp up for my next Pokemon battle. Picachu, don’t let me down you little bitch!
-PA
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2007
Aug
21
What is happening Plaid People! I am high above the Pacific (take puns as you wish)—returning from a crazy night in Beijing. I spent the past seven hours talking shop and dropping cocktails with one of the most powerful people on the planet, Chen Yuan.
Who, you ask, is that dude? Chen “C-Notes” Yuan is the Governor of the China Development Bank (CDB). The CDB is the largest bank in China and is, of course, state-owned. That means Mr. C-Notes is both a member of the Chinese Communist Government Elite AND the manager of a giant fucking bank fortune. We’re talking billions and billions!
And the CDB has recently been in the news, check this out:
http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=9556414&fsrc=RSS
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/20/business/wealth.php?page=1
That’s right, Mr C-Notes has grabbed a share in the British bank, Barclays. The commies are taking over the global banking system! But don’t fear—when it comes to profit, the Chinese would shit on Karl Marx’s grave to earn an extra 0.1% interest. The CDP has absolutely no intention on redistributing any of Barclay’s wealth to further the dream of a socialist utopia.
Anyway, the take home message from this news story is that the Chinese Government is beginning to flex its financial muscles as a global investor. This has two effects:
(1) it increases China‘s stake in the current financial system (what’s bad for the market is bad for China)
(2) it gives China increased power to effect the global financial system
The main worry is that China will use its share in private companies to influence foreign governments. For example, China can lobby the British government—through Barclays—to adopt pro-China policies. Or, China can threaten to sell off its large share of Barclay’s on the cheap to disrupt the British economy. Of course, if they did this, China‘s economy wouldn’t exactly be a winner in the deal.
The Plaid Avenger’s take, if anyone cares, is that corporations love money. They will do anything they can to maximize profit. It doesn’t matter if the main investors are Mid-Western White Americans or Han-Chinese Government Playboys.
I’ve got to cut this off—my Mile High Club Membership is in need of renewal. Party in Plaid!
-PA
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2007
Aug
21
Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned to finish off this four-part blog, with the finale focusing on how Fatah is feeling frisky and free, while its Hamas rivals are hopelessly hammered and hamstrung. What the fuck am I talking about? If you have read the previous blogs on this subject, you now understand that the Fatah political party in Palestine was run out of the Gaza section and now is concentrated in, and outright controls, the West Bank section. Hamas is the other Palestinian political party, you know, the ones that are labeled as a terrorist group by some, and are in control of the Gaza Strip section of Palestine. These two political parties now hate each other even more fervently than they did before this open rift physically separated the pseudo-state we call Palestine.
As the Plaid Avenger now sees it, the idea of a singular state called Palestine which consists of both the Gaza and the West Bank is officially and completely fucking DEAD. And even if the peace process as a whole isn’t dead, then certainly Hamas and the whole Gaza population is being pushed to the brink of extinction and most of the outside world is helping accelerate this demise. Don’t believe me? Then check these out:
EU cuts dim Gaza’s power supply
UN warns over Gaza economic woe
Japan resumes direct aid to support Abbas
Abbas issues decree excluding Hamas from elections
Israel to free inmates this week
US in $80m Palestinian aid deal
So what’s the real deal here Plaid? I’m glad you asked. Because while it completely sucks for Hamas and all the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip, its quite easy to explain the state of affairs in this Palestinian situation. And here we go: Hamas is screwed. Gaza is screwed. Mahmoud Abbas is the favorite son of “the West” and therefore stands to gain tremendously for both his party but also for the West Bank in its entirety. Fatah will emerge as the triumphant and most powerful political party in Palestine. Let’s take these one at a time, shall we?
Hamas is screwed. Why? Because they are the group that is despised by Israel and “the West” because they have a militant wing of their party that condones suicide bombings and calls for the destruction of Israel. As pointed out in a previous blog, most of Hamas is not that radical, but the small minority that are have gotten the entire political party labeled as such. This is the primary reason why Israel, the US, the EU and many other international players are completely turning their backs on Hamas and refusing to recognize them as a real and legitimate political party that controls Gaza. [Never mind that Hamas actually won the power in democratic elections] To compound the outsiders’ hate of Hamas, the fact that Hamas physically and succinctly kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip a few months ago has only served to piss off the international players on this stage even more. So how to punish Hamas, this group that is so despised? Well, that leads to point #2.
Gaza is screwed. In an effort to destabilize, demoralize, and outright destroy Hamas power, almost all international actors are isolating and punishing the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip. Check stories above for just a few references. International aid has been slashed, EU is shutting down its power plant that provides electricity, and Israel has tightened all economic activities across the borders in Gaza to the point that there really is no economy at all. Essentially, the whole group is being starved out as punishment for first off electing the Hamas leadership, and secondly for supporting the expulsion of Fatah, and thirdly for allowing Hamas to continue to remain in power. Sound fucking harsh? Yeah, it does to me too, but I’m not here to get on a political soapbox and generate sympathy, I just want you to understand what the hell is going on. However, while the Gaza Strip is getting shattered, not everybody is a loser in this game, consider Abbas and Fatah.
Mahmoud Abbas is still the leader of the Fatah political Party, and the leader of the PLO, and now the de facto leader of the West Bank. And life is looking awfully cheery for him right now. Look again at the stories linked above. In just the last month here has what has happened to Abbas and his Fatah party:
- Official recognition as the legitimate rulers of Palestine (whatever that means anymore)
- US, Israel, and the EU resumed all international aid programs to the West Bank—in effect, directly to Fatah since they control the West Bank (BTW, Gaza is excluded from all this aid)
- Israel released a shitload of Fatah political prisoners from its jails as a token of goodwill
- US, EU, Israel and even Russia have increased international investment into the West Bank
- Abbas has met with pretty much every important world leader in the last month. None have gone to Gaza.
Starting to get the picture here? The long and short of it is that the outside world is legitimizing Abbas and Fatah in an effort to further isolate Hamas. Why? Go back to Fatah blog again and check it out. Under Arafat, Fatah denounced terrorism and suicide bombings, and recognized the right of Israel to exist. While not all folks in Fatah may actually believe in those pledges, it is precisely the reason that Israel, the US, and the EU are currently supporting them over their political rivals Hamas, which of course has not done any of those things.
And quite frankly, I think that’s probably all you need to know right now to understand exactly what is happening, and what the very likely outcome will be. Now you understand why Gaza is being isolated and starved, don’t you? Now you understand why Abbas is the West’s best friend, don’t you? And perhaps you now understand why the idea of a single Palestinian state comprised of both Gaza and the West Bank together is completely fucked, don’t you?
The future is not hard to predict either: as millions in aid and international recognition flows to Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank, they will thrive and become richer. More importantly, they will be recognized internationally as the true voice of the Palestinian state, whatever that means. For instance, if there is to be a Palestinian seat at the UN, it will definitely be filled with a guy from Fatah. No doubts. Israel and the US in particular will make it their mission to pull the West Bank from squalor to make sure that the world sees a state that has denounced terrorism become a success story in the Middle East. Will it actually happen? Hell if I know, but I bet you will increasingly see lots of “success stories” reported out of the West Bank.
And Gaza? Well, grinding poverty produces two things: 1)lots of suffering and death and 2)further radicalization of radical people. Surprise, surprise! Things are going to suck even worse for those folks, and some of those folks will get even more extreme. What a shocker. To be fair, Israel, the US and the EU are probably hoping that their tough stance towards Hamas will effect some sort of softening of Hamas’ stance, or perhaps that the locals will overthrow Hamas and then beg “the West” for forgiveness, but the Avenger does not see that happening anytime soon. One thing is for certain: Palestine is now two distinct entities, and the West Bank will certainly soon achieve state status, but Gaza is likely to flounder into nothingness…
What do you think? Your comments and questions are welcome. Hope this Palestinian tutorial helped you understand this mess a little better. Time for a drink!.
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2007
Jul
13
Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned to this tumultuous topic of tremendous trepidation and tribulations—the troubles in Palestine, or what is left of Palestine depending upon your view. We’ve talked about the territories, I’ve harangued you about Hamas, so let’s now get our freak on with Fatah!
So what the fuck is a Fatah? Fatah is all at once several things:
- #1 Fatah is the largest organization in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), a multi-party confederation.
- #2 Fatah is a, if not the, major political party in Palestine (like the Democrats or Republicans in the US)
- #3 Fatah is mostly a nationalist party (fighting for an independent state names Palestine) but also has a social network which includes many militant sub-groups, as well as many socialist/charitable sub-groups (not unlike Hamas).
- #4 Fatah currently completely controls the government of the West Bank, and is recognized internationally as the only government in charge of Palestine in its entirety—in other words, Fatah is being recognized as the only politically legitimate voice of all Palestinian peoples, even if many in Hamas would beg to disagree.
Confusing enough for you? Let’s take these one at a time…but a couple definitions to start:
The Palestinian National Authority/Palestinian Authority is the interim government of the Palestinian territories, first headed by headed by Yasser Arafat and now led by Mahmoud Abbas. Basically, it’s the ‘government’ of Palestine, but since Palestine is not an officially recognized sovereign state in the eyes of the world, it’s still an ‘interim’ government. The basic assumption here is that Palestine is in the process of becoming a state eventually, but it’s not yet there. Israelis who do not recognize a Palestinian state, always drop the word ‘National’ and refer to it as the Palestinian Authority. You will see it used both ways in lots of different places.
Meanwhile back at the Bat-cave, the Palestinian Liberation Organization aka the PLO is an umbrella group of a shitload of different political and militant groups originially headed by Yasser Arafat. The PLO started in Egypt in 1964 as a political movement uniting Palestinian Arabs in an effort to create an independent state of Palestine—their main objective has always been an independent Palestine, although in the past it also touted a need for the destruction of the state of Israel for this to happen. For a good portion of its history, the PLO was considered a terrorist organization, and an extremely rich one at that ($8-10 billion in assets). In 1968 Arafat became chairman; received recognition by the United Nations and by Arab states in 1974 as a government in exile; and thus has played a largely political role since the creation of the Palestine National Authority. The Palestine Liberation Organization is considered by the Arab League and by the United Nations to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and it holds a permanent observer seat in the United Nations General Assembly. Now, the story of the PLO is much more fact-packed and complicated than I’m explaining here, but there is one more specific tidbit that you must know about Arafat and the PLO to understand today’s Gaza debacle:
***This is critical: Yasser Arafat signed the ‘Declaration of Principles’ with Israel in 1993 and exchanged mutual renunciations of terrorism with Israel and a mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel, and was allowed to return to the Palestinian territories from exile in Tunisia. What’s so important about that? In this letter, Arafat is basically saying that his group will not officially condone any more terrorism, and most importantly recognizes Israel‘s right to exist. Kind of. Perhaps more factually, he says that the destruction of Israel is no longer a goal or demand of the PLO and by default the Palestinian National Authority. This is why he was allowed to return and head the interim government, and why he became ‘legitimate’ spokesman for the Palestinians and a ‘legitimate’ player in the peace process. Why is this so crucial for our story? Because Hamas has not made a similar denouncement of terrorism and recognition of Israel—that’s why they are not ‘legitimate’ players in this game in the eyes of the West.
But wait Plaid Avenger! I thought you were just talking about the PLO! How can you compare the PLO legitimacy with Hamas illegitimacy? I thought this blog was about Fatah! I’m confused!
I know, I know, my friends. I’ve intentionally led you down a blind alley talking about the PLO so that I wouldn’t have to muddle terms. I’ve left out one big component that you should now be ready to handle: Fatah is indeed a separate political party in Palestine, but it is also the most powerful political party in the PLO! Confused more or less now? Fatah has always been the major stakeholder of power in the PLO, Fatah has more or less controlled the action of the PLO, and what’s more, Yasser Arafat was simultaneously the head of the PLO, the head of the Fatah political party, and the head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA)! Damn, let’s make it more confusing: Mahmoud Abbas, the current President is the PNA took all of Arafat’s titles too! He is head of Fatah, head of the PLO, and head of the PNA. Got it yet? Shit! Good! Someone explain it back to me!
The Avenger is usually pretty astute with analogies, but I’m not sure one exists to compare to this situation. But I’ll try. It would be something like this: pretend for a minute that George Bush Jr. is the head of the Republican Party. Now pretend that he is simultaneously President of the US. Oops, I keep forgetting that he kind of is….kind of. Finally, pretend that he also is the head of an international coalition of Republicans from across the world who are bound be a single mission…. I don’t know, maybe the elimination of all corporate taxes, or perhaps a world-wide country club membership that included a free-golf-for-life clause. Whatever. Hopefully you get my point. Arafat, and now Abbas, have always worn these three hats at the same time: 1)head of the political party (Fatah), 2)head of an international organization in which their political party is the major player (PLO), and 3)head of the government in which their political party controls (Palestine).
So now back to our Fatah story. The Fatah movement—promoting an independent Palestine which would be liberated by the actions of Palestinian Arabs—was founded in 1958 by members of the Palestinian diaspora (mostly professionals working in the Gulf States who had been refugees in Gaza and had gone on to study in Cairo). This is when Arafat became involved and quickly rose to leadership. As referenced above, Arafat and his Fatah party became the foundation stone of the PLO in 1964. For the following decades, Fatah/PLO provided training to a wide range of militant and insurgent groups, and carried out numerous attacks against Israeli targets in the Middle East and abroad—thus their ‘terrorist’ status. Fatah became the dominant force in Palestinian politics after the 1967 Six-Day War dealt seriously dismembered the already fractured Palestinian territory.
Since then, Fatah has been the primary voice of the Palestinian plight, both internally but also on the international stage. And I mean THE primary voice. Like 90% of the politicians in Palestine were Fatah folks. However, like I alluded to in the Hamas blog, it is at its core a political party made up of lots of different folks with lots of different views. Some are more worried about social issues, others more militant and concerned only with the intractable Israeli dispute, and yet others who want to seek political solutions to the whole debacle. As time has wore on, many Palestinians have come to view Fatah as largely corrupt internally (it is), and largely incompetent and useless internationally (since there have been virtually no positive movements towards the territorial dispute). Yeah….these guys got troubles.
As such, Fatah has been losing support from the Palestinian masses for years. And the final hammer just dropped: In 2005, Hamas won landslide victories in nearly all the municipalities it contested, and in the January 25, 2006 parliamentary election, Fatah lost its majority in the Palestinian parliament to Hamas, and resigned all cabinet positions, instead assuming the role as the main opposition party.
So where does that leave us? Is it over for Fatah? Not hardly! The turn of events of last month witnessed Hamas literally kicking the Fatah folks out of Gaza—but don’t count them out yet! Fatah retaliated by firing all the Hamas officials and taking over sole control of the West Bank. And all this controversy has resulted in widespread international support for Fatah, to the exclusion of Hamas….And you’ll have to tune in tomorrow for the wrap-up to see the Plaid predictions of how this will all turn out…
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