Turkey is Steamed and Ready; but this ain’t no Thanksgiving for US
Damn! I hate reporting from an active war zone! I always end up spilling a martini or two in the foxhole, and it’s so much harder to get my groove on with gunfire ringing out in the background. Plus, I just don’t feel as sexy in a plaid flak jacket…but I digress as usual. So where the hell am I? Well, I heard that you folks were flabbergasted by some strange events in the US Congress which may result in Turkish forces invading
Bush warns Congress not to recognise Armenian ‘genocide’
Turkey protests approval of bill in US House
Turkey warns US of repercussions to genocide vote
Tension rises on Turkey-Iraq border
PM Erdoğan says Turkey doesn’t need permission to move on Northern Iraq
U.S. Officials Urge Restraint From Turkey
So what the hell is
For this excursion, we have to get
But it was too little too late.
Now let’s stop the boat for a minute and answer a few questions. Were some Armenians agitating for independence? Yep, as were a shitload of other ethnic groups under the Ottoman umbrella. Did some of those Armenians assist the Russians? Surely some of them did, but how many is anybody’s guess. Did the Young Turks burn, loot, pillage, torture, maim, deport, and outright kill about 1-1.5 million Armenians in 1915-17? Absolutely; no one is disputing that fact, not even the current Turkish government. So why are these events suddenly in the news, with a variety of huge repercussions for global events? Ah…that will take some more explaining…
As referenced in the above stories, a US House of Representatives committee just voted on a bill to recognize this Ottoman event as a genocide. Genocide: the deliberate and systematic destruction of an ethnic, religious or national group. Damn, that’s a word that pisses people off every time its uttered. And this time its
As soon as the White House caught wind of this bill, President Bush issued a very heavy handed warning to the folks on the committee. Heavy. Like, “hey don’t do this shit, please, this is more grief than we want to deal with right now!” But the bill passed anyway after much debate—this is just a committee bill by the way; it still has to go to the entire House floor for a vote, maybe as early as this week. Bill or law, the shit hit the fan anyway.
Retaliatory measures? What retaliatory measures? What the hell could
Due to its strategic location, it is the only participating country that truly wields the power to utterly alter the
But
Now I don’t want to get into the particulars of that mess in this forum today, but I do want you to understand this: before that genocide vote last week, the
So the
As alluded to already,
To finish this rant, why would this Armenian genocide deal have come up at this particular time anyway? That does appear to be the $25,000 dollar question. I have no real idea why it is happening right this second in the
Of particular note, I want to mention just a few of these:
But for the US and the Middle East, how pissed off Turkey gets over this issue may very well have severe repercussions for the events of this week…of this year….and the long-term future of the region, and the world.
Hmmmm…Strange…..How bizarre is it that big, global-shaping events hinge on the use—or failure to use—a single word to describe a century-old catastrophe.
The State Can Take It or Leave It: Nationalization v. Privatization
What is happening my plaid party people? The Avenger decided to stay on here in Russia for another day to work off my wicked Putin-induced vodka martini hangover…and to investigate the nationalization of Russian oil; a process that has also been going down in Kazakhstan, in Bolivia, and in Venezuela too. And man, the
How Russia is Nationalized: The Oil Sector
Zimbabwe Votes to Take Control of Foreign-Owned Mines
Exxon pursues arbitration against Venezuela over seizure of oil assets
Chavez threatens to nationalize Venezuelan private schools
Bolivian President Seizes Gas Industry
…and the opposite side of the coin:
Japan begins privatization of its mammoth postal system
Activists Oppose Egyptian Healthcare Privatization
Iran to Privatize Airline, Banks
India’s Privatization Plan Is On Track
So what’s the deal with these two terms? They are polar opposites my friends, and folks around the planet have passionate views about the good or evil effects that nationalization or privatization can produce. People get downright hot and bothered about these terms! And in some circumstances, initiating these actions has caused political dissent, diplomatic friction, or outright violent hostilities between peoples, companies, and even countries! Damn! Why so much heat? First…what are they?
Nationalization is a process whereby a government takes control of an economic activity that was owned by and/or run by private individuals/companies hands. It could be transportation, corn, water, uranium, or even bananas…but usually it happens to high-dollar commodities. For example: Exxon acquires rights thru a government contract to pump shit tons of oil out of selected oil fields in
But it never really works that simply. Even in this Venezuela/Exxon example (which actually happened) Hugo didn’t simply just kick Exxon out and take their shit; he offered to buy back their shares and their investments at a fair market value. Sometimes the parties have to go to court to negotiate these settlements (see Exxon story above). Nationalization of an industry often involves the government simply re-writing all prior contracts with the companies in such a way that the state owns more than 50% of the action. But make no bones about it: if the companies refuse to co-operate or sell back their shares, then the state will just take the shit from them!
And OMG nationalization so completely pisses off ‘the West’…especially the
So why would a state do this nationalization gig? Sometimes its done to protect a critical industry in times of war or emergency (some countries have nationalized steel during wartimes); sometimes its done because the industry is a matter of national security (Israel runs its airline industry); sometimes its done to an industry that is floundering and about to crash on its own (perhaps the US/health care issue). But more often than not, a state will reclaim rights on an industry that it feels it’s getting ripped off in. Stick with the oil example: when Exxon or Shell or anybody else is pumping oil out of
Let’s say a barrel of crude sells for $50 on the international market; Exxon may pay $5 to
Oh, by the way, did you see President Evo Morales of Bolivia on the Daily Show with John Stewart last week? Totally hilarious! And Evo referenced why he decided to nationalize his countries oil and natural gas: “On the issue of nationalization of oil and gas,” Morales said, “in 2005, before I came president, the Bolivian state received only 300 million dollars from its oil and gas exports. And now since they’ve been nationalized, the Bolivian state receives more than two billion dollars. Therefore, we followed through on what we promised.”
Are you starting to realize why this is happening at this particular juncture in history, particularly in the energy sectors? If you answered: ‘because the price of oil is freakin’ high, and expected to get even higher’ than you win the prize! Oil producing states see the future sales going nowhere but up, and want to have a bigger slice of the pie for themselves. Oil is one of those special commodities that kind of defies free market capitalism–in that lots of states control their industry as opposed to letting private individuals run the show. See map below for a few countries of note… And while die-hard capitalist countries claim that governments cannot run industries as well as private corporations, those states that are controlling their oil do seem to be making a holy shit load of cash right now…despite the fact that the private industry isn’t in charge. And speaking of private….
Privatization is precisely the opposite of nationalization: it’s when a state sells off an industry or business that it controls to a private entity, most often a company/corporation. Look to the above story from
The theory goes like this: because private entities are motivated to maximize profits, they will do a better job making an industry like a post office more efficient, or they will work harder to find more oil, and are more flexible to invent new technologies and try new approaches which make the business run the best. Remember: one of the golden rules of capitalism is that competition will weed out the least efficient, and the better mousetrap will win every time. Folks of this opinion believe that governments are clunky, inefficient—and because they don’t have to compete with anybody—are uncompetitive! No shit? Lack of competition makes you become uncompetitive? Yeah, I can dig that!
Places like
And its not like the governments simply privatize the industry and then just walk away poorer for the experience. Capitalist theory would suggest that not only does the state make money on the initial sale of the industry, but in the long run will make way more in profits by simply taking a cut of the profits and/or taxing the service/product. Since private business will do it better, there will be more oil or more uranium or more corn or more stamped letters to tax…therefore the state makes more money! And without having to actually spend money running the damn show! You dig?
Does it sound like I’m picking sides on this nationalize/privatize debate? Don’t be fooled. The Plaid Avenger is here to tell you this: this is complicated shit, and there is no wrong or right side here. It really goes on a case by case basis in my book. Does private industry typically do shit better than government-run shit? Absolutely! Are some countries getting totally reamed by some private corporations? Absolutely! Are some states unfairly grabbing shit from corporations whose time and investments made the industry profitable in the first place? Absolutely! Are some multinational corporations total scumbags who use their money and power to corrupt and control industries within a state? Ab-so-fucking-lutely!
So pay attention to which states are selling, and which states are buying, their industries. And also pay attention to which industries are up for grabs. You will hear a lot in the
I just hope I can still get my damn collectable Godzilla stamps in Toyko…even if it is from a private vendor…
Presiding President Postures for Potential Prime Minister Position: "Pootie Poot" Putin’s
Greetings World Watchers! Couldn’t help but fly into
And sorry for the corny blog title, but I am returning from a day at the Kremlin with some disturbing news… Apparently, back in 2002, George W Bush gave Vladimir Putin the nickname “Pootie Poot”. No, I’m not joking. Check this out: Bush’s love of Pootie-Poot Putin; Analysis: Bush and Putin on nickname terms
How did I miss that shit? Bush seriously referred to the most badass of world leaders as “Pootie Poot” Putin. Dubya is just begging to have a thermobaric bomb dropped on
I think if George Dubya were to call Vlad ‘Pootie-Poot’ in today’s political climate, he might well get his jugular ripped out by the icy hand of the Siberian shit-kicker…. A nickname that I think may be more appropriate for the Russian leader. Of course, I have also given the KGB veteran a more print-friendly nickname too: Vlad “The Man” Putin. Why do I call him “The Man”? I’ll give you a quick list:
1) He’s a former KGB agent. The KGB was the Secret Service in
2) Putin is a judo black belt. This is all part of the KGB training. Vlad is a serious ass kicker. If the UN was a professional wrestling organization, Putin would be Hulk Hogan. In fact, if the UN ever did turn into a wrestling organization the only imaginable scenario is Putin standing atop the main podium yelling, “I challenge anyone to dethrone me! I am king of the world” and every other world leader cowering in fear. Not even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is crazy enough to challenge Putin’s badassity.
3) Putin has training with small munitions. I think the pictures speak for themselves.
4) All of this aside, Putin is a damn handsome man. You should see the foxy Ruskiettes that hang out at the Kremlin Grotto. All I can say is WOW. He drives the Russian ladies (and gay men the world over) wild with lascivious lust.
Anyway, the real reason I came to
Vlad is highly popular in
Putin Says He Will Run for Parliament
The nonstop thrill ride of Russian politics
Basically, a couple of weeks ago, Putin fired the old Prime Minister and replaced him with a no-name nobody named Viktor Zubkov. Literally. No one had ever heard of the dude. The only thing Zubkov has going for him is complete loyalty to Vlad. It would be like George Bush nominating his personal lawyer, Harriet Myers, to the Supreme Court just because she was loyal to him… Oops… I guess that did happen. But I digress…
Anyway, in Russian politics, the position of Prime Minister has been a spring board to the Presidency. By appointing Zubkov to be Prime Minister, Putin has made Zubkov the de facto favorite to be the next President. Why would Vlad appoint a no-name to be President? Does he want to pull strings from behind the curtain?
Actually, it turns out that Putin wants to pull strings from IN FRONT of the curtain. Putin announced that he will be running for Parliament. As the leader of his party (United Russia), which is the most popular party in Russia, he will almost certainly be elected to Parliament and then selected as Prime Minister. But, isn’t Prime Minister a suckier job than President? Maybe…maybe not. If the President of Russia is politically weak–which looks like it will be the case (does anyone even remember that guys name? Rubadub-Zub? Zuberanski? Shit, who cares..) then the Prime Minister could start to increase his power. This would especially be the case if the President wanted the Prime Minister to be powerful. The current situation is that the President makes decisions and the Prime Minister rubber stamps them. Very easily, next year it could be the exact opposite. Vlad “The Prime Minister Man” Putin could be the decision maker and President Rubadub-Zub could be the rubber stamper. Ha! There I go again!
So, this brings me to the FINAL REASON Vlad is “The Man”:
5) The man is more powerful than his position. Imagine if Bushie Bush ran for congress in 2008 and became Speaker of the House–and from that position, he was able to control the US government. You can’t imagine that. It’s too freakin’ crazy! In
And, damn, he mixes one mean vodka martini…but perhaps I’m disclosing too much….
Permanent Possessors of Power: the Fabulous 5!
Forget the Fantastic 4, you want to know about the Fabulous 5! Greetings from the
Security Council reps discuss Iranian sanctions
Security Council Reform Resolution Fuels German Hope for Seat
Signs of shift in Iran stand-off
U.N. to revisit Security Council growth
U.N. Security Council has imposed an arms embargo on Sudan
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the main organ of the UN charged with maintaining peace and security among countries. While lots of other committees do lots of other shit, all that shit only amounts to recommendations that are made to countries of the world. However, the Security Council has the power to make decisions which member governments must carry out under the UN Charter—a charter which all members states have agreed to. Starting to get the picture here? If the Security Council passes a resolution, it must be enforced…by force if necessary!
In example: if a country on the Security Council proposes a resolution to bomb Burma, and that resolution passes, then the UN has to act on it, and Burma will be bombed. That is an extreme scenario, but you get the point. In 1950, it was just such a UN resolution that led to the invasion of
But let’s look at the mechanics of how this shit actually works. The Security Council is made up of 15 member states, consisting of five permanent seats and ten temporary seats. Ah! Now we finally see the ‘permanent’ part of this group, and the reason for this blog. The permanent five are the
But the big 5! That is where all the action really is! Why? Because the Permanent Security Council members have this one all important distinction: veto power! Any one of the 5 permanent members can stop any resolution dead in its tracks.
Why so much drama? Because for the UN to actually send troops or aid to any part of the world requires a resolution from the council. See, the entire Security Council votes on all issues, with each country getting one vote. For any resolution to pass, it must have at least 9 ‘yes’ votes, and zero ‘veto’ votes from any of the permanent 5. And the big permanent 5 don’t always see eye to eye on what the UN should be doing, because they all have different allies and strategic partners and motivations to consider. So to keep our example going, the
Need another example? Just think back to the lead-up to the current
To keep it even more real, consider the current Iranian situation as referenced in the stories above. The
Just as a side note:
And you should know that a country can actually decide not to vote at all—which happens quite a bit with the Chinese. They might not like a resolution, but if everyone else wants it, they will just not vote, thereby saving face. To keep our Iranian example: if the Russians eventually agree to some use of force against Iran, China will not want to stand in the way of a resolution that everyone wants, so they will abstain from the vote….so they won’t piss off the US, UK and France, and at the same time can tell the Iranians “Hey, don’t be pissed at us! We didn’t vote for it! Send your terrorist to their countries, not ours!” See how this shit works?
To finish, you just got to know your Permanent Security Council 5, and how their behavior in large part determines the actions of the entire UN. Many folks want to expand the Permanent Security Council membership and change some of the rules to better represent the world and end the predictable stalemates. Check the stories above for activity on that front…and know this:
Hmmm….Germany….isn’t it about time for Octoberfest celebrations to begin?
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Mohamed ElBaradei: Call him ‘Cool Hand Nuke’
Whew! Finally thawing out from my weekend Arctic adventures, and what better place to do it than a coffee house here in
France ups ante in war of words with Iran over nuke issue
France seeks new set of sanctions on Iran
Europeans Tone Down War Rhetoric in Iran Nuclear Stand-Off
Western talk of Iran war premature “hype”: IAEA head
ElBaradei at center of standoff over Iran’s nuclear program
So before we get to this Elbaradei cat and why he’s so damn important, let’s browse over the headlines. In a nutshell,
However, the
So
What a bizarre turn of events for the French: they are never the instigators of war….they usually just surrender when the war breaks out. Damn! You know you must be pissing people off if the French want to fight you! Shit! Hitler couldn’t even pull that one off! I just can’t help but think that the
You’ve got to know this dude, because his opinion, and his voice, will be seriously affecting how shit gets played out on our planet in the coming years. Big time. So who is he? Mohamed ElBaradei is an Egyptian diplomat and Director General of the IAEA….aka the International Atomic Energy Agency, a sub-organization of the UN. And an important one at that. The IAEA’s basic mission is to promote the peaceful use of nuke technology for energy purposes while simultaneously limiting nuke technology for weapons purposes. They are often referred to as “the UN’s Nuclear Watchdog”. These are the guys who do inspections on facilities the world over to ensure that the IAEA and the NPT’s aims are being met.
As the head of the IAEA, ElBaradei has the daunting task of compiling all the investigative clues and deciding if a country is breaching the NPT by trying to create nuke weapons. And this is a shitty job. Why? Look at the headlines again from above. Because there is so much political drama between countries, ElBaradei and his crew are constantly harassed from all sides when they make any decision or recommendation. No matter what the IAEA decides, its sure to piss someone off.
Want an example? Sure, here’s one you’ll remember: In the lead up to the current US/Iraq War, the
Long story short: know your ElBaradei. He is a level-headed dude who has been striving for peaceful resolution to world nuke issues for over a decade. He is routinely berated by the
Don’t mess with Mohamed my friends! This dude won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 (jointly with the IAEA), and he donated his winnings to set up orphanages in
As for me…its about time to hit the slopes. Where are my plaid ski pants?….
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Issue 2: Battle For Burma
Well, the battle for the heart and soul of this country is on, but no one outside Burma seems to be able to do a damn thing about it! Why not?
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