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Pakistanis Primary Problem: Indecisive Intelligence and Murky Military Motives

Synopsis:
Pakistan has been on the brink of full-on catastrophe and chaos for some time now, and most look to the woes of the struggling democracy as reason for the calamity. However, the Plaid Avenger wants you to consider the indecisive nature of the the military and the intelligence communities within Pakistan as the primary problem behind the current calamity in Afghanistan, in the Swat Valley,and in the entire western side of Pakistan….which taken together may spell the possible future failure of the state itself.

Keywords: Pakistan, al-Queda, Taliban, Swat Valley, Afghanistan

It’s payback time

Pakistan against itself

Touting Religion, Grabbing Land

India has ‘proof’ of Pakistan role in Mumbai attacks

Briton: Extremists in Pakistan a Key Target

Taliban Militants Attack NATO Supply Convoy In Northwest Pakistan

Pakistan Says U.S. Should Review Baluchistan Strikes

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Uncle Sam Kicked Out of Kyrgystan

Kyrgyzstan announced that it was closing a major US air base in their country which is a strategic center of the US-led NATO mission in Afghanistan. This comes one week after a promise of huge amounts of aid to Kyrgyzstan from the Russians, as well as a joint security venture including these two sates and others.  But the Russian motives are more complex than just pissing off the US. This move increases western reliance on Russia’s aid and influence to fight the Afghan campaign….thereby having a strategic lever by which to get what is wants out of the US/NATO, namely no more NATO meddling in Ukraine and Georgia, and possibly stopping the development of the proposed NATO missile defense shield in eastern Europe.

In the news:
Analysis: US base falls victim to Kyrgyz crisis

Russia’s Silver Bullet for Afghanistan

Kyrgyz vote on US base held up by Russian aid

Kazakhstan helps out US on Afghanistan

Russia Kicks U.S. Out of Kyrgyzstan

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Nuke Deal for New Delhi kicks off New Age of US-India Relations

Word up my plaid comrades in arms! It is I The Plaid Avenger, coming at you again in the written word, with a new attitude, a new lease on life, and a new pair of plaid boxers, and all right here in the heart of New Delhi. That’s in India, fool! I had to come here to party with my main man Manmohan Singh….that would be Prime Minister Singh to you! And why would he be hitting the hookah in celebration? ‘Cause the US Congress just passed a India-US nuke deal that the Bush Administration has been pushing hard for…and Manmohan himself has had to work his Indian ass off for at home. Dig this:

U.S. Senate approves Indian nuclear deal

Nuclear deal set to boost US-India ties

India tilts to the US with nuclear deal

Iran: US-India nuclear deal violates NPT

Left parties observe black day

So what is the deal with this deal? It’s all about the US helping bend some international rules to get India hooked up with some nuclear energy options. Wait a damn minute…..Doesn’t India already have nuclear weapons? Answer: yes. Doesn’t India already have a nuclear weapons industry? Answer: yes. So therefore, doesn’t it stand to reason that India already has a nuclear power industry? Answer: NO! But they really want one…and they really need one too. So what gives?

India must have energy to continue on their path of development. They must have the go-go juice in order to build and operate all those new factories and industries which will be supplying the world with lots of cheap labor trinkets. India also has serious development in the high-end computer and software sectors too…and you need energy to keep those screens on as well. And there is the small matter of a billion people in the country that would like to have lights and TVs and microwave ovens and all that shit. Unfortunately, India does not have many energy resources of its own. Therefore, India must import more and more energy in order to keep their economy running, and as you know that oil-based energy has been getting more and more expensive.

But wait…I thought the world was trying to get away from oil dependence? Why don’t the Indians just use some other type of energy? Well, as stated above, India ain’t got no oil. They do have some coal, but that is awfully polluting fuel for a billion people to use. As is wood. Or dried cow dung. So India simply doesn’t have a lot of energy options. Oh! Oh….wait! Oh….Oh….Oh…I got it! Call on me teacher! I’ve got the answer! Call on me! My hand is up!…How about nuclear energy? Yeah! Damn I’m good. See, India already has nuclear technology; hell, it has a nuclear program and nuclear bombs! So they can just start making nuclear energy….right? Wrong! WTF? Why not?

Almost all the major world powers which possess nuclear weapons have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which basically states that they won’t proliferate or distribute nuke technology to anybody else. However, I did say almost all. India, Pakistan and Israel are three states known to possess nuke technology, but who have not signed this treaty—and all for very, very different reasons too, which I won’t get into here. As you can imagine, this treaty is mostly to ensure that nobody is making nuke weapons, but nuke power technology is allowed by the NPT, which makes enforcement of it tricky…i.e. see IRAN in current events.

Just know this for now: if you aren’t signed up for the treaty, then you are not allowed to access civilian nuke technology or buy fuel for nuke energy production either. Which is why India has been stuck. But the US likes India! The UN likes India! Hell, everybody likes India! Okay, maybe not Pakistan. But most of the world sees India as a multi-cultural society and stable democracy that is developing rapidly in the modern world. And since they already have the nuke technology, most think they can handle nuke energy. But that pesky NPT! What to do about that?

Photo credit should read RAVEENDRAN/AFP/Getty ImagesWell, US President George Bush thought of what to do a few years back: bend it a little. In an effort to strengthen US-Indian ties, Georgie has been working tirelessly (okay, someone who works for Georgie has been working tirelessly) to make India the exception to this NPT rule. The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 is the legal framework for a bilateral pact between the US and India under which the US will provide access to civilian nuclear technology and access to nuclear fuel in exchange for IAEA-safeguards on civilian Indian reactors.

In other words, the US will personally work with India to get them the goods (nuke energy technologies and fuel) and in return India promises to abide by all the major rules of the NPT (especially the ‘no proliferating’ part) and the IAEA—the International Atomic Energy Agency—would also be participating to do inspections and enforce the rules.

Everybody was all about this shit man! Mohammad El Baradei of the IAEA thought it was a good idea. Prime Minister Singh thought it was sweet that India would be getting all kinds of cheap fuel for his economy. And the Bush Administration? Holy shit! They were tickled pink! Not only would the US get to make tons of money on selling India nuke secrets and nuke fuel, but US corporations were going to be getting a hefty share of building the nuke plants to boot! And the US really wants the growing Indian economy to produce its own fuel….thereby lessening its demand for world oil…lower Indian demand means more left over for us! At cheaper prices too!

However, this agreement turned into a 3 year rollercoaster ride for both the US and India. Prime Minister Singh actually got egg all over his face when the Indian Parliament initially shot down the idea, and then has been bickering over the details of its passage ever since. A main Indian political party named BJP declared that India’s entering this agreement with the US would compromise their national security by limiting their weapons program. Worse yet, a bunch of Indian Commie/Marxist parties declared their boycott of the nuke deal on the grounds that it made India a subservient pawn to the ‘imperialist policies of the U.S.A.’. Dudes, did anyone tell those Indian commies that the Cold War is over? Read the papers man!

But now all the fussing and fighting has finally ended, and that’s what this report is all about. Our main man Singh finally got enough of his parliament on board to sign the agreement, and the US Congress put its stamp of approval on it last week. The IAEA is in the middle working out all the details as we speak. Pull out the Tandori chicken and let the nuke party begin!

But hold the phone! Not everyone is in love with this deal! It is seriously pissing off opponents of nuclear proliferation around the globe, who argue that India is benefiting by breaking the rules…which will set a dangerous precedent for other countries to follow the same path. And one need look no further than Pakistan to see some pissed Paki peoples who claim that India is being shown favoritism by the West…because the same deal is certainly not being offered to them and their Muslim majority! Finally, look to a fuming Iran, which says that this whole process is bullshit, since the Iranians themselves are trying to do the exact same thing as India, but being punished for it! Iran has no nuke weapons and claims it only wants nuke energy….but they are getting their asses sanctioned instead of satiated for their efforts.

But the deal is now sealed, and that means plenty for these two giants. US businesses will certainly be getting sweet deals in the sub-continent now, the first such major in-roads that the US has ever made into the Indian economy. More importantly, this starts the solidification of a new era of US/India foreign policy, which serves to pull India distinctly into the ‘Team West’ camp on a variety of global issues. Namely, India is now firmly on-board the ‘Team West’ train in being a democracy, being a capitalist economy, being a big advocate of human rights and individual liberties, being a member of the ‘War on Terrorism’…and now with this nuke energy move, being an active member of the ‘Green Movement’ to stop using fossil fuels.

And India will certainly benefit by this new stronger alliance as well. Look for the next US President and all others after him, to increase visitation, aid, and military intelligence with India. Foreign direct investment will probably start pouring in from the US and others. Whether you like it or not, nuke energy will certainly be providing absolute shit tons of relatively cheap fuel to the Indian economy and its peoples, while minimizing environmental degradation. And look for India to become a much stronger global player by the side of the US as well…dare I say that this agreement may convince the US to support the inclusion of India on the UN Permanent Security Council! I dare! I dare! I predict it will happen!

Back home in India, those Marxist/Commie leftists are plenty pissed about these movements, and are convinced that this agreement will make India a new bitch to American foreign policy and influence. But I don’t see it. India has always been a very independent player and those Hindus have been doing their Hindi thing for thousands of years, so don’t expect them to cave in on issues of relevance when they disagree with Uncle Sam. But there is no doubt, Vishnu and Lady Liberty are in a new tango that has tremendous and titillating future potential!

If only I could get Krishna and Kali to wear some plaid outfits…hmmmm…Kali the Plaid Destroyer. Sounds kinky…

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Bhutto Buried; Pakistan Itself Not Far Behind…

Yukon workin' his magic on the ladies…Greetings from an extended seasonal hiatus my plaid friends! My apologies for the extended absence, but I had to head north for the holidays….far north to be exacter.  I was at the North Pole investigating competing claims to the Arctic territory, but wound up fishing a totally soused Yukon Cornelius out of a drunken Eskimo orgy in Inuit territory.  That Yukon! I’ve been carrying his weak ass back to Santa’s palace for years.

Gone but not forgotten…Pakistan's newest martyrAnd sorry to have to check back in for such a dismal news assessment, but as all of you are aware, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated last week and now Pakistan is in flames…figuratively and literally.  This country is totally screwed with a capital SCHLONG.  I won’t do a whole in-depth blog on it right this second since many of the details are still sketchy and the country is in for a shit ton of turmoil in the coming weeks in which anything can happen.  Seriously friends, this is the type of situation in which full on revolution and chaos are ripe.  So let me just make a few comments addressing the questions many of you have sent me:

Big question numero uno: Did Musharraf have anything to do with the Bhutto assassination? Almost assuredly not.  In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say hell freakin no.  Why am I so sure?  Because Musharraf has been leading a country that has been on the brink of total chaos and collapse.  Now he is leading a country that IS in chaos with a real tangible threat of collapse.  He already had the shittiest job ever, and it just got worse.  Bhutto’s death may very well be the death of his presidency, and he knows it.  Mush did not order or condone the killing of Bhutto.

Having said that, he is still partially to blame. How? Because there is also no doubt in the Plaid Avenger’s mind that Mush was playing political hardball with Bhutto.  See, Bhutto has been gaining even more popularity since her return, and everyone knew she was going to have a big win in the upcoming elections.  Now, Mush knew he couldn’t stop that from happening, but he didn’t want to help her become even more powerful either.  So the Mush government consistently refused to beef up security around Bhutto, even though she routinely requested it…and even though everybody knew the danger level was high.

Security lapse and Bhutto’s personal touch made her vulnerable to attack

So Mush did not order her assassination. Mush did not even know about the plans of her assassination.  Mush is not even exactly sure who assassinated her.  But Mush does hold some culpability for allowing the assassination to occur.

Big question numero dos: So who did kill her?  That is actually an easy one.  It’s the same folks who tried to kill her a few months ago…who happen to be the same folks who have tried to kill Musharraf several times too.  Its them damn terrorist Muslim extremist types that are all over Pakistan and Afghanistan!  Why did they want her (and Mush) dead?  Because Bhutto and Mush are both staunch secularist when it comes to Pakistani government.  That means they want to keep a strict separation between religion and politics.  And both Bhutto and Mush support the US/World ‘War on Terrorism’, in which the fight is hottest right there on Paki soil. 

Those extremist types (like al-Qaeda and the Taliban) are fighting for establishment of a theocratic Muslim state, or they are fighting for an independent state within Pakistan (i.e. Waziristan), or they are just fighting like hell against the Paki government because they don’t like the fact that Mush/Pakistan is so cozy with the US when it comes to foreign policy. Remember, Pakistan receives a shit-ton of foreign aid from the US, primarily to keep up the ‘war on terrorism.’  As you can imagine, the terrorist don’t like that idea too much, so total destabilization of Pakistan by any means is one of their ongoing goals.

Not to confuse you too much, but you should also note that a whole lot of these ‘terrorists’ are actually not Taliban or al-Qaeda operatives…but are increasingly ethnic Waziri, Baloch, or Pashtun folks who are being whipped into a fury with the promise of independence from Pakistan.  Whipped up by who? Why by al-Qaeda and the Taliban forces of course.  Yeah…what a great idea that is to take advice from al-Qaeda on how to become an independent state. Good luck with that one, guys.  Why don’t you just paint a big ass bull-eye across your territory so the bombers know where to drop their payload?

So while I cringe from ever agreeing with the overly-simplistic Cheney administration’s take on international affairs, they happen to be right on this one.  The Bhutto assassination was without a doubt carried out by fringe Islamic extremists within Pakistan. Bhutto’s people are already disputing this fact, but they are politically motivated to do so.  They hate Mush so much now (like they didn’t before?) that they are adamant that his government be connected to the assassination.  They want his ass out in the worst way, so they will continue to implicate Mush and the entire government in Bhutto’s death.  Again, its just a political ploy….but it may well work.

Bhutto killing blamed on al-Qaeda

Anger, mistrust at Bhutto death among Pakistan’s bloggers

Big question numero tres: So what now for Pakistan?  Well, that is the big question isn’t it?  And I hate to get into the speculation game like so many other freakin’ worthless pundits on Capitol Hill and on radio/TV talk shows.  It really is too close to the events and too soon to tell what is going to play out in Pakistan.  But I will offer this: it’s going to get messy.  A lot messier than it even is now. 

There really are no strong, popular figures in Pakistan right this second that can pull things together.  Which means things are going to continue to get pulled further apart.  And while the mainstream news media has not been reporting on it too much (they have been kept so busy all year telling you about the status of Brittany Spears’ vagina), things have been getting much worse in Afghanistan and the Afghan/Paki border. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have made fairly decent gains in terms of outright controlling more territory and making a bigger political impact across the entire region.  The Taliban has been moving stridently right up to the Afghan capital city….and NATO and the rest of the boys are losing ground in this battle. 

Scene of future fires…

And as referenced above, al-Qaeda has also done a stellar job recruiting the locals to fight the Paki government, mostly via bullshit promises that somehow this will result in a stable independent state for Waziristan and others. So Afghanistan is becoming more turbulent, and the western side of Pakistan is becoming a wide-open hotbed of military activity too.  Hell, its bordering on an open war zone!  A couple of months ago, a small village/territory in Waziristan started flying an official Taliban flag and declared its independence from Pakistan.  Talk about a shit storm coming! 

Al-Qaeda aims at Pakistan’s heart

Long story short, shit has been hitting the fan, shit is hitting the fan, and a monster terd may Mush! Get the hell out before they get you!be coming to smash the entire house where the fan is running.  Elections which are due to be held this month will likely amount to nothing…since there is no singular popular strong figure for everyone to rally around.  Mush will hold on for a bit longer, but the longer he hangs out, the more ripe Pakistan becomes for yet another military coup or a widespread anti-Mush riot which will probably end with the military declaring martial law again. Or worse.  A bunch of people may get killed in such a political crackdown, and that will certainly spell the end of Mush’s presidency.

In other words, no good solution in sight.  Possibilities include: a military coup ousting Mush; Mush may be assassinated too…but if he goes down it will be by insiders, not by terrorists; Mush may get sick of all the shit and step down voluntarily and call for snap elections; elections will proceed as scheduled, but accomplish little in terms of real change; a massive surge of terrorist/independence movement violence in the western regions which will over-tax the military and possibly crash the whole country; Waziristan declaring inpendence with a pro-Taliban government; and/or Dick Cheney declaring war on Asia.

Oh, and of course the reality may be that several of these options occur simultaneously.  Ew.  That will be a real pot of shit simmering on the world stove.  Stir occasionally, and it will serve one to two billion. I suggest a crisp New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc with that dish!

Party on Pakistani-style. Which is to say: party like it’s your last day on earth.

-PA

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Issue 2: Battle For Burma

Well, the battle for the heart and soul of this country is on, but no one outside Burma seems to be able to do a damn thing about it! Why not?

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