Plaidcast  |  World

INTERPOL: Justice, Global-Style!!!

• World
• International Organizations
• South Asia & Central Asia
• The Americas

Huzzah for the good guys! Huzzah huzzah huzzah!…and help me find my way back to the hotel bar…I’ve been celebrating the recent snatch of a scumbag here in southeast Asia, Thailand to be exact, and I’m afraid I’ve gotten too caught up in the party to be able to navigate the back streets of Bangkok.  I’ve got the Murray Head song “One Night in Bangkok” set for permanent repeat on my Ipod, and I’ve been rockin’ it out with my INTERPOL peeps for days.  And damn! These INTERPOL guys know how to serve up the drinks after they serve up the justice! What’s that? Never heard of INTERPOL? The INTERnational Criminal POLice Organization? Well let’s pull out the cuffs and get our game on then:

Interpol launches public manhunt for pedophile

Interpol issues notice seeking arrest of Canadian suspected pedophile

Interpol swoops in Thailand

Interpol detains 166 cross-border crime suspects in Tanzania

International Co-operation Leads to Arrest of Rwandan Genocide Suspect

INTERPOL Official Site

Talk about global justice served! Man, I always get fired up when I see the good guys fighting for the global good getting their man…or in this case a total scumbag of a man.  Interpol’s most recent incursion into current events came last week when they helped bag some Canadian child molesting shit-eater. Interpol specialists unscrambled an internet-posted image of this dude in the act.  They then identified him, and sent out a worldwide information alert which helped track his sick ass down in less than a week, and he was subsequently arrested in Thailand. 

Oh, and I suppose I should respect the rights of judicial due process, and declare that this guy is innocent until proven guilty. NOT! I’m a vigilante at heart, but all that aside, the freak posted pictures of himself in the act! Hell no to due process! This twisted shit is guilty! The mere fact that a Canadian was caught outside of his country should be setting off alarm bells.  But a single white male Canadian caught in Thailand with photos of himself on the web molesting boys?….um….yeah….that’s what we call an open and shut case…And I hope they open and shut the iron door right on his skull a few hundred times after the trial, if you get my drift.

A little Plaid Avenger tip to you world travelers: don’t get arrested in SouthEast Asia.  Bad news my friends, bad news.  You ain’t coming out of one of those lock-ups the same man…if you come out at all!  But I digress as usual…I don’t want to talk about this bad man, or those bad prisons.  I’m much more interested in the good guys that got him. Who the hell is INTERPOL?

In a nutshell: INTERPOL is an organization facilitating international police cooperation. And I do mean international!  It is the world’s largest international police organization, with 186 member countries…making it the fifth biggest organization on the planet by membership.  INTERPOL helps facilitate co-operation on affairs of justice even when diplomatic relations do not exist between particular countries.  So even though countries like the US and Iran hate each other and have absolutely no diplomatic ties, both of those states participate in INTERPOL and therefore exchange information at least in the capacity of serving global justice. Everybody does INTERPOL man!

And what exactly does INTERPOL do? They support and assist all organizations, authorities and services whose mission is to prevent or combat international crime. The BIG thing they do is all about the information.  Pooling intelligence, as it were. INTERPOL has the single biggest crime database on the planet…created by verifying, posting, sharing, and cross-referencing all the crime data from all its participating countries…which as I have pointed out, is pretty much the whole damn world!  From their website: “One of INTERPOL’s most important functions is to help police in member countries share critical crime-related information using the organization’s system of international notices.”

But not all crime! Just the crimes and criminals that have an international dimension.  In order to maintain as politically neutral a role as possible, Interpol’s constitution forbids its involvement in crimes that do not overlap several member countries.  In other words, INTERPOL would never interfere in any judicial proceedings on a crime which occurred just in a single state—that is left to the locals to deal with.  However, when any individual or criminal organization deals across two or more countries, then INTERPOL tracks and posts the data…and sometimes even gets more pro-active by physically going after the bad guys!

So data sharing is their main deal.  They track and post lists of wanted fugitives who have fled across international borders. They post lists of stolen passport identities that all countries can access.  They advertise photos and known aliases of criminals.  All this data—and much more—is available across the entire planet to all police and government agencies who fight crime.  Pretty fucking cool man.  Unless you are a criminal of course. 

And the criminals they focus on?  Its work focuses primarily on public safety, terrorism, organized crime, war crimes, illicit drug production, drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, trafficking in human beings, money laundering, child pornography, white-collar crime, computer crime, Intellectual Property crime and corruption.  All bad shit to be sure.  And all shit that has global dimensions on our world….which is why its so freakin’ awesome to see a truly positive form of globalization for a change!

Which is the real reason for today’s rant.  When are all these politicians and ardent nationalists going to wake the hell up to how the world is working right now?  We have a global economy, we have global trade, we have global movement of capital, global movement of people, global corporations, and even global warming.  As such, we also now have global crime syndicates, global drug trafficking, global human trafficking, global arms trade…HOWEVER we don’t have any real global law, no global judicial system, and no real way to effectively stop global crime.  Why not?

Because most of the countries on the planet refuse to cooperate in a single global law system due to conflicting cultural beliefs, personal vendettas against other countries, and mostly due to fear of loss of a smidgen of sovereignty.  Oh shit! There is that sovereignty word again! It is always causing trouble! In particular, the most powerful states in the world—like the US, China, Russia—have no interest in even pretending to participate in a singular global law system, for fear of losing even a modicum of their all-powerful self-rule. 

We live in a globalized world people! Crime does not stop at state borders anymore! When nothing else on this planet is confined to state boundaries, why do we still insist that justice be so confined? And frankly, a lot of states are just being dumb not to support more global justice mechanisms.

Want an example? Drugs! No, I don’t mean take them, I mean think about them.  Drugs are a global commodity, produced and traded and moved all around the planet by criminal organizations from at least a few dozen different countries. Why would a single state want to take on the burden of fighting a ‘war on drugs’ all by themselves? Its not even possible man! A truly global problem like drug trafficking simply demands a global solution…and a global justice system to try the folks you bust, and a global police to go and bust them.

Well, for now we at least have INTERPOL, which is a start.  But I must be honest with you here…it’s not really that much.  I think INTERPOL kicks total ass, but the reason that they mostly just deal with information availability is that they don’t have much of a budget or much of a staff to do much else.  (Last year they received $59 million in contributions from member states; in contrast EUROPOL received $90, and Bill Gates used $120 million in 100-dollar bills just to wipe his ass.) So they don’t have a lot of coin, or a lot of international authority, to do too much.

What does INTERPOL not do? INTERPOL action is taken within the limits of existing laws in different countries and in the spirit of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. INTERPOL’s constitution prohibits ‘any intervention or activities of a political, military, religious or racial character.’  And while it makes for great fiction, INTERPOL generally does not have a bunch of detectives out searching for clues at the crime scene, and rarely sends agents to go apprehend a criminal.  It works with the national and local police to get those things done.

It is still a cool concept to think about though, and you have probably seen reference to INTERPOL in a film or two as well.  Ethan Hawke played an INTERPOL agent tracking down the Nicolas Cage character in Lords of War ;a movie about the illegal global arms trade.  Inspector Gadget is supposed to be an INTERPOL agent. In the movie Mission: Impossible III, Ethan Hunt is told he is on INTERPOL’s Most Wanted list. My personal favorite—mostly because she is a hottie—is Agent Isabel Lahiri played by Catherine Zeta-Jones in Oceans Twelve. 

Actually, Agent Lahiri was a EUROPOL agent—EUROPOL is exactly like INTERPOL except it is a collaboration just of EU countries under a common crime-fighting umbrella.  However, Agent Lahiri is forced near the end of the film to turn over the Oceans Twelve suspects to a group of folks posing as…can you guess?…INTERPOL agents of course! Dude! That movie totally kicks ass! That was easily the best acting job I’ve ever seen Bruce Willis do…oh, wait a minute, he was playing himself.  Hmmm, I guess that explains it.  But I digress as usual…

So now you know INTERPOL and what it does. You also know its limitations, and limited use in today’s world…a situation which all fighters for global justice must help remedy! As Batman and Robin would say: “Support your local police”….as The Plaid Avenger insists: “Support your global justice system”, and for now, that justice is INTERPOL.

Crime is no longer just local, and so justice should not be either.  Rock on, fighters for truth and freedom on the planetary platform!

White House loses cable TV; Administration Unaware of World Opinion.

• World
• East Asia-Pacific
• The Americas

Dude! Did someone forget to pay the cable bill at the White House? Because I don’t think that they are getting CNN anymore, much less any other news network that deals with issues outside the US!

Salutations my sexy and sultry friends! The Plaid Avenger is back is rare form, to the great consternation of the Cheney administration in the US.  While I typically try not to dabble in doltish domestic drivel, I’ve heard enough irreverent and irrational interpretations of international intrigue from this administration to last an infinity. Ha! That’s a lot of ‘I’s my friends! And since the US is definitely the 800 pound gorilla of international politics, it is worthy enough to talk about the current comments of the Cheney corporation…and more importantly why their statements are strange…and sketch.  Check it:

Bush warns world of WWIII over Iran

George Bush warns Putin over ‘World War III’

Cheney – No nuclear arms for Iran

Cheney, Like President, Has a Warning for Iran

Cheney raises anti-Iran rhetoric

So what am I ranting about here? Let’s get the sentiment of this blog straight from the start: the Avenger is only concerned with the ridiculous rhetoric coming from the Bush Administration about their ‘world support’ against the Iranian regime.  I’m not going to get into the debate about whether or not the Iranians are trying to build a nuclear bomb (they are not…yet). I’m not getting into the particulars about whether or not they support terrorism in the Middle East (they do). I’m not even going to get into whether or not Iran has evil intentions or should be sanctioned or even should be bombed.  What I do want to chat about is who exactly would be supporting any of these movements against Iran—which is the focus of this forum….

Now, apparently the US administration is employing some good old boy, old-school, pre-WWII tactics of full-on propaganda in order to scare the living shit out of folks enough to get them riled up to demand that action be taken against the Iranians.  I mean, if the whole world is against the Iranians, shouldn’t we do something about it?  Um….that’s just the problem…the whole world is definitely not on board with US foreign policy on this matter, and to announce that the US is going to lead a willing world to destroy Iran is not just misleading…its simply wrong.  But I want you folks to be smarter than the average bear…and in this case, ‘bear’ is an appropriate animal description, as the Russian Bear has everything to do with this equation.

But I am getting ahead of myself as usual.  Let’s get to the facts…I don’t think I need to elaborate much on the Iranian/US situation happening on the planet right now.  In a nutshell: Iran is developing a nuclear power industry; no one is disputing that fact. The US and some Western European states are utterly convinced that Iran is developing this knowledge in order to ultimately build nuclear weapons.  Iran claims that it only wants the nuclear power, and has a right to do this based on the NPT treaty (which is true). 

The US in particular refutes this claim, and there are widespread accusations in the US which allude to ‘flagrant’ misdeeds of Iran developing a secret nuke bomb—although to my knowledge, no proof of Iranian wrong-doing has ever been presented to the IAEA.  In other words, the US and its allies insist that everybody in the world knows Iran is doing all this bad stuff…even though no one has actually got any proof of any of this bad stuff.  You starting to get the picture here?

Well the picture got fuzzier after Vlad ‘the Man’ Putin visited Iran last week and declared that Russia does not believe threat Iran is doing anything illegal.  As you know from a previous blog (World Pissing Match: Russia Pisses Off US;), Russia also went as far as to set up a ‘no-attack-Iran’ zone with all the countries which surround the Caspian Sea.  ‘The Bear’ is making no bones about its position with Iran—a position which runs exactly opposite to the US one.

And that brings us back to point: Last Friday US President Bush made a speech in which he said that Iran‘s obtaining of a nuclear weapon would start ‘World War Three.”  Wow! That is some serious shit to be spouting! Not to be outdone, US Vice-President Dick Cheney went on the attack just yesterday by saying that under no circumstances would the US and the world at large allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb…which in this case also means developing nuclear power. He hinted that ‘the world’ would not allow this, and that there would be serious repercussions on Iran if they continued down this path.

Just a couple of quotes:

President Bush: “My intent is to continue(?) to rally the world, to send a focused signal to the Iranian government that we will continue to work to isolate you…” (my italics…and ‘continue to rally the world’? ‘Continue’? When did it start?)

Vice President Cheney: “The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences,” Mr. Cheney said, without specifying what those might be. “The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” (my italics)

The international community is prepared to impose serious consequences? The US is rallying the world?  Hmmmm….. I do have to wonder…..Where are these guys getting their information from? I mean, they are the damn White House for pete’s sake! They have the CIA, the FBI, the NSA, foreign ambassadors, think tanks, chiefs of staff and a shitload of other folks whose jobs are to keep the Executive Branch well informed.  So how are these guys making such clueless comments?  I’m just a dude reading the newspapers and can point out a few holes in their thinking about international support against Iran. Here we go:

1) Russia: Hey guys! Check the papers from last week! Russia just announced that they don’t think Iran is doing anything illegal.  AND they said that they would not be supporting any more tougher UN-imposed sanctions on Iran.  How can Russian make such a bold assertion? Duh? Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Permanent Security Council.  As such, it has veto power over any UN sanctions against Iran.

Hello? McFly? McCheney? Do you know how the UN works? Check out a previous blog if you are still confused (Permanent Possessors of Power: the Fabulous 5!)  The deal: Russia will stop cold any UN move against Iran.  So you can count Russia out of your ‘international community’ plans…and while we are it at…

2) China: China almost always stays out of internal affairs of other countries unless those countries happen to be directly threatening China itself.  And that is not the case here either.  Remember, China is the #1 fan of sovereignty on the planet, and as such will say that Iran has a right as a sovereign state to develop nuclear energy until it is proven that they are doing something else.  On top of that, China is always wimpy to stand alone at the UN…but since Russia has already ponied up and said it will block any UN measures against Iran, China will now do it too.  So count China out of the ‘world standing against Iran’….but wait! There’s more!

3) Latin America: Venezuela? Forget about it! Hugo Chavez loves Iran, as does Bolivia‘s leader.  And since most of Latin America now swings to the left side of the socialist spectrum (and because US-Latin American relations have sucked for a decade), the US should not be looking south of its borders for too much support of an Iranian intervention. In fact, almost all countries south of Mexico will probably openly oppose any such move…since most already did oppose the US invasion of Iraq. Oh! And speaking of Iraq…

4) Iraq: That place is still in bad shape with sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite…does anybody in Iraq really want an invasion of Shia Iran next door? Talk about dumping gas on the fire! Holy shit! That whole place will explode! Don’t look for Iran‘s immediate neighbors to support an invasion or bombing…what a minute…did you say neighbors?

5) Iran‘s ‘hood: As suggested above, Iraq cannot be very supportive of a new war next door. But as also referenced earlier, what I refer to as ‘The Caspian Coalition’ has already declared it opposition to any move against Iran. See map for countries who have already agreed to NOT allow any attack on Iran from their territories.  And you can extend a bit beyond the Caspian as well…Central Asian countries have been much more keen to party with Russia lately, and have also been having talks with Iran about letting them into their SCO club.  (You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!! )  So count those –stan countries out as well, ‘cause they will side up with the Ruskies on this matter.

Shit. Who does that leave for the “international stand against Iran”? Let’s end the blog on who the US can count on to get their panties in a bunch over Iran: for sure the US can count on their old lapdog the UK for support.  Even though Gordon Brown isn’t quite the parlor pooch that Tony Blair was, he will still give his go ahead for actions against Iran.

And France? Hell, France is the new UK when it comes to supporting US foreign policy!  Nick Sarkozy is all about kicking some Iranian ass…or at least supporting the US to do it! Germany may be in on this action as well, as they are getting very leery of Iranian power…combined with the quaint fact that they may be within reach of an Iranian missile.  Most other European nations, Japan, and even Australia would be on board right this second. But watch out! Australia is holding an election soon, and if John Howard loses, then you can count the Australians out too! Hell, the Labour Party is threatening to pull Aussie troops out of Iraq if they win–no way they are going to support a war with Iran. That is, if they win…which seems probable right now.

Other than that, the US will have a handful of Arab states which may actually support a move against Iran too. Look for Saudi Arabia and Egypt to possibly side up with the US, although in doing so may cause catastrophic public dissent in their countries. Turkey will also probably side up with the US, although if that Armenian genocide bill goes through the US Congress, its anybody’s bet how the Turks will roll.

Needless to say, this idea of an international community rallying around the US to deny Iran nuclear power/nuclear weaponry is a bit of fancy.  And the Avenger can’t stand such fluff.  Know your world my friends. Know how it works. And know when politicians are blowing smoke up your ass.

Speaking of smoke…time to head to the local hookah bar for some much needed respite from these radical ramblings…

World Pissing Match: Russia Pisses Off US; US Pisses Off China & Turkey; Turkey Pisses Off Iraq,

• Middle East
• World
• East Asia-Pacific
• European Eurasia
• The Americas

Hello hello hello again plaid party people! Too many good stories to choose from today…so let’s talk about them all! In a first for the Avenger, we will tie together a trifecta of titillating tidbits with the tantalizing tie between then being irritation. Pissed to be exact! It seems today is the day that most major powers on the planet decided to simultaneously piss in each other’s corn flakes! How hilarious! All in a day’s work I suppose, so let’s get to this summary…shall we? 

Russia, Iran harden against West

Bush warns Putin over ‘World War Three’

For starters, one of the planet’s bad asses of all time Vlad ‘the man’ Putin of Russia decided to pay a visit to his homies down in Iran.  Ha! Russia has homies? Not likely! Nonetheless, Putin was visiting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad…and he even met with the grand poo-bah of Shia Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei! Wouldn’t you have loved to be a fly on the wall during that fascinating conversation? Yeah, me neither.  Let’s recreate the dialogue:

 

Putin: Great to meet you, Supreme Leader of Iran…got any vodka to drink?
Ayatollah: Allah be praised, you Russian infidel. We don’t drink alcohol in my country.
Putin: Oh. Well, that’s okay. In my country most Muslims and foreigners in general are discriminated against. Hell, we’ve been blowing up Chechen Muslims for years.
Ayatollah: Hmmm… I see.  Well, we don’t really have anything in common, do we?
Putin: Um…nope. Not really. Oh wait! Would you like me to show you some Judo?
Ayatollah: No. That would be gay. And we don’t have any gay people in my country either.
Putin:Oh. Um. Then I guess we don’t have much to talk about…
—Long, uncomfortable silence—
Ayatollah: Well, there is always pissing off the Americans….
Putin: Oh yeah! We are good at that! Let’s work together on that point …what did you have in mind?

Which brings us back to the topic at hand.  Let’s get to the pissed part…After talking with President Ahmadinejad, Putin declared that Russia does not support the American assertion that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. And in fact Russia believes that Iran only wants nuclear technology to produce energy, and Russia is going to help them do it.  In addition, Russia has hinted that they are not going to allow any more stricter UN sanctions on Iran (remember, Russia is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council—they can stop any further sanctions on the spot), and have outright suggested that the US needs to stop its ‘saber-rattling’ tactics by threatening war. Damn! This is seriously pissing off the US!

On top of that, Russia and Iran just wrapped up a summit of ‘Caspian Sea nations’ in which they all signed a declaration which prohibits any other country on the planet from using their states for attacks on one another “under any circumstances”.  Caspian summit a triumph for Iran You get that? Read between the lines: In other words, all those countries agree that they will not help the US, the EU, or even the UN launch an attack on Iran. These countries include Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan (see map). Damn! They are outright telling the US and the world to piss off when it comes to any war on Iran! More rage for the US!

So President Bush is so pissed that he is suggesting that this may be a lead up to WW3! Ha! Dude! Chill out! There are a couple of things that someone should suggest to the Americans to calm them down:

1)Under the NPT (the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), developing nuclear technology for power creation is totally acceptable. Iran is a signatory to this treaty, so as long as they are playing by the rules, so should you. I know you don’t like it, but you are going to have to live with it

2)Let’s go ahead and run with the US assumption that Iran really only wants nuke technology to make a bomb. Let’s assume they make a bomb.  Hell, let’s even assume they launch that bomb at Israel, since the Americans are fully convinced that this will happen.  Why would the Iranians do this, since it totally assures that their country will become a smoldering, radioactive wasteland after the US and France and the UK retaliate with overwhelming force? Doesn’t make much sense. Does it?

To be fair to the US, that is an oversimplified analysis, and there other issues to be considered…namely the fear that an Iranian nuke bomb would spark a Middle Eastern arms race.  Fair enough. That is a valid point. If Iran gets a nuke, then Saudi Arabia is going to want a nuke, and Syria will then want a nuke, etc.  So if that is what you US guys truly believe, then why don’t you actually come out and say it? Enough with the ‘Iran is going to kill us all’ bullshit.

Apparently the US is even more pissed because they can’t do much about these Russia-Iranian developments right now.  So the US decided to piss off someone else instead….

U.S. honor for Dalai Lama angers China

Bush dismisses Chinese criticism over Dalai Lama

In honoring the Dalai Lama, the US is seriously pissing off China.  Don’t know why that is? Check out an earlier Plaid Avenger insight into China‘s fear of the Lama at Dalai Lama at Oktoberfest? Let’s Get Enlit!  Now China is pissed at the US because anytime anybody even so much as meets with the Lama (much less give him a damn medal!), the Chinese interpret that as giving the Dalai too much ‘street cred’…and China’s ultimate fear is that if everyone in the world thinks the Dalai Lama is legit, then he will have the power to demand an independent Tibet. All I can say to the Chinese is: bullshit! That is never going to happen dudes, so lighten up on the monk! But China remains pissed for today either way….but they are not alone…

Turkey is also pissed at the US because of that proposed ‘recognition of the Armenian Genocide’ bill that made its way through a House committee last week.  See Turkey is Steamed and Ready; but this ain’t no Thanksgiving for US  I reported on that shit a few days back from the Turk-Iraq border, and the shit is heating up even more! While I was there, about 50,000-60,000 Turkish troops with a butt load of tanks and guns were amassing.  They are about ready to get the party started. What party? The invasion of Iraq to track down some Kurdish terrorists. 

Turks’ vote backs right to use force inside Iraq

Turkey votes to send troops into northen Iraq

And Turkey is still so pissed about that US committee vote, that they Turkish parliament went ahead and voted 507 to 19 to allow the armed forces to launch a cross-border assault against Kurdish insurgents based in northern Iraq. The 19 that voted ‘no’ were probably taken out back for a ass-whoopin’ shortly after the proceedings. Ordinarily, the US and Turkey are such strong allies that the US probably would have been able to talk them out of any aggressive actions in Iraq.  But the Turks are simply pissed! Too pissed to listen to the Americans now…

And it goes without saying that the Iraqis are pissed about these Turkish developments…

Angry Iraqi Kurds say Turkish move would destabilise region

Iraq Kurds warn Turkey against ‘illegal’ incursion vote

Kurds ‘will fight Turkish raids’

Although Iraq is pretty much a basket case, and barely a functioning government, they have voiced their serious pissed-off-ness about the idea that Turkey may invade their ‘sovereign’ state.  Sovereign? Ha! How hilarious is that? Isn’t there like troops from 20 different countries in Iraq? And the whole place is on the brink of civil war…if not fully already in one?

Despite the current Iraqi predicament, the idea of yet another country sending in troops is seriously pissing them off…particularly since the northern part of Iraq (where the Turks plan to invade to route out the PKK terrorists) is one of the only stable parts of the country right now! And northern Iraq is composed mostly of ethnic Kurds, and the Turks are coming in to hunt down a group of radical Kurds.  If the Turks do come in, and accidentally kill a bunch of innocent Kurds while trying to kill the ‘bad’ PKK Kurds….OMG there will be hell to pay! That would spark a shit storm of open warfare in the region! The place may quickly get as nasty as the Bagdad region!

And the prospect of that seriously pisses off the US!  The US has its hands full already trying to calm down the rest of the Iraq, where most of the conflict centers on sectarian strife between the Sunni and Shia Muslims…fueled by local Sunni extremist, outside terrorist forces like Al-Qaeda, and even next-door-neighbor Iran which funnels in ammo and aid to the Shias. Damn! The US would be pissed about the Turks getting the northern region as hot as the south already is!

Simply pissed!

And now we have come full circle in our pissing match for the day.  Those world leaders certainly have been busy boys today, infuriating each other like its going out of style!

And they are pissed!

India Says ‘Oh No’ to Nukes and ‘Oh Yeah’ to Oil; US says ‘Oh Shit’

• World
• South Asia & Central Asia

Hello again fair and fanciful friends! It is I The Plaid Avenger, coming at you live from Nigeria where I have been partying all day with my main man Manmohan Singh….that would be Prime Minister Singh to you! But he ain’t no politician from Nigeria my brothers and sisters; he is the leader of India. So what’s this Indian brother doin’ hanging in western Africa? I’m glad you asked! It’s got everything to do with India’s thirst for energy…two different types of energy to be exact, combining two different issues with two different Indian allies…but all the shit is going down at once! Dig it:

Indian prime minister seeks more trade with oil-rich Nigeria

India’s ties with Nigeria, Africa enter new era

India eyes Nigeria energy

PM moots strategic ties with Nigeria

Manmohan To Bush: Difficulties In Implementing N-deal

Singh’s Nuclear-Energy U-Turn Lets India Down

Difficulties in n-deal operationalisation, Singh tells Bush

Our main man from New Delhi has been meeting with the Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua today to firm up a whole shitload of commitments between the two countries. India and Nigeria want to work together to increase trade between the states; to form a united front to counter the current international financial systems which are not very ‘developing-country friendly’; and even to work together to ensure that India gets a primo spot on the UN Permanent Security Council…should that group ever get around to expanding. But mostly they talked about cash! Oops, I mean economic ties…that’s the more politically correct term for politicians…

But dudes, we all know its about the dollars man! These two world leader cats were cementing trade deals and promising investment packages and doing everything they can to work together better. Nigeria is India’s largest trading partner on the planet, and the Nigerians are anxious about getting more basic manufactures and cheap shit from India, in return for some resources that the Nigerians hook up the Indians with. Africa as a continent is just loaded with resources that rich and poor countries alike are hungry for.  Lots of resources!

Dollars and resources! And the one resource in particular that India gets is…can you possibly even guess?….it’s oil!  Nigeria is the world’s 8^th largest exporter of oil on the planet right now, and India is the 6^th largest user of oil on the planet….and here is the kicker: India ain’t got none of their own! None! They’ve got to import it all baby! So Singh and his boys from Bollywood can claim that they are hooking up with the Nigerians for a million and one different reasons…but we all know that it’s really all about that petroleum!  India has got to have the oil, man!

Oh BTW, when countries talk about getting oil nowadays, they refer to it as ‘energy security talks’ Ha! I got something you can secure! What the hell ever! You guys are talking about buying and selling oil, and the Avenger knows this!

And Singh knows this too. India must have energy to continue on their path of development. They must have the go-go juice in order to build and operate all those new factories and industries which will be supplying the world with lots of cheap labor trinkets. India also has serious development in the high-end computer and software sectors too…and you need energy to keep those screens on as well. And there is the small matter of a billion people in the country that would like to have lights and TVs and microwave ovens and all that shit.  Therefore, India must import more and more energy in order to keep their economy running….ergo, they import a fuck-ton of oil from Nigeria. 

But wait…I thought the world was trying to get away from oil dependence? Why don’t the Indians just use some other type of energy? Well, as stated above, India ain’t got no oil. They do have some coal, but that is awfully polluting fuel for a billion people to use. As is wood. Or dried cow dung.  So India simply doesn’t have a lot of energy options.  Oh! Oh….wait!  Oh….Oh….Oh…I got it! Call on me teacher! I’ve got the answer! Call on me! My hand is up!…How about nuclear energy?  Yeah! Damn I’m good. See, India already has nuclear technology; hell, it has a nuclear program and nuclear bombs! So they can just start making nuclear energy….right?

Wrong! Check the other stories above for the ‘no to nukes’ bomb that Singh dropped today. Pun intended.  US President Bush had to call back Indian Prime Minister Singh while he was in Nigeria today to hear the bad news that a proposed Indian-US nuke deal was going to get shot down in the Indian Congress.  How bizarre is that story? US calls India in Nigeria. Confused enough yet? Let me clarify quickly…

Almost all the major world powers which possess nuclear weapons have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which basically states that they won’t proliferate or distribute nuke technology to anybody else. However, I did say almost all.  India, Pakistan and Israel are three states known to possess nuke technology, but who have not signed this treaty—and all for very, very different reasons too, which I won’t get into here. As you can imagine, this treaty is mostly to ensure that nobody is making nuke weapons, but nuke power technology is allowed by the NPT, which makes enforcement of it tricky…i.e. see IRAN in current events.

Just know this for now: if you aren’t signed up for the treaty, then you are not allowed to access civilian nuke technology or buy fuel for nuke energy production either.  Which is why India is stuck.  But the US likes India! The UN likes India! Hell, everybody likes India! Okay, maybe not Pakistan. But most of the world sees India as a multi-cultural society and stable democracy that is developing rapidly in the modern world. And since they already have the nuke technology, most think they can handle nuke energy.  But that pesky NPT! What to do about that?

Well, US President George Bush thought of what to do a few years back: bend it a little.  In an effort to strengthen US-Indian ties, Georgie has been working tirelessly (okay, someone who works for Georgie has been working tirelessly) to make India the exception to this NPT rule. The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 is the legal framework for a bilateral pact between the US and India under which the US will provide access to civilian nuclear tech stuff and access to nuke fuel in exchange for IAEA-safeguards on civilian Indian reactors.

In other words, the US will personally work with India to get them the goods (nuke energy technologies and fuel) and in return India promises to abide by all the major rules of the NPT (especially the ‘no proliferating’ part) and the IAEA—International Atomic Energy Agency—would also be participating to do inspections and enforce the rules.

Everybody was all about this shit man! Mohammad El Baradei of the IAEA thought it was a good idea. Prime Minister Singh thought it was sweet that India would be getting all kinds of cheap fuel for his economy. Sweet!

And the Bush Administration? Holy shit! They were tickled pink! Not only would the US get to make tons of money on selling India nuke secrets and fuel, but US corporations were going to be getting a hefty share of building the nuke plants to boot! And the US really wants the growing Indian economy to produce its own fuel….thereby lessening its demand for world oil…lower Indian demand means more left over for us! At cheaper prices too!  President Bush whipped up this agreement overnight, got it passed by Congress and signed it into law in a hot shit minute. The IAEA was working out the details, and all that was left to do was have the Indians formally sign the treaty. Let’s get this game on! Win-win-win baby!

Oops.  Unfortunately it lost-lost-lost.  That’s what the sad phone call from Nigeria to Air Force One was about earlier today.  The Indian political system is one of those kind of freaky parliamentary systems where there is no clear cut political party in power.  Like in the US right now, the Democrats control the House, the Republicans control the White House, etc. But in India, there is like 50 different parties in Congress, and for a Prime Minister to get any piece of legislation passed, he has to have a whole shitload of parties working together. He has to form a coalition government to get things done. 

You dig what I’m saying? The coalition is comprised of a bunch of different political parties that together form a majority.  On top of that, this coalition that forms has the responsibility of electing the Prime Minister himself.  Which means if enough folks in the coalition get pissed, they can actually crash the whole government by declaring a stalemate…in which new elections would be called for and a new Prime Minister picked.

Long story short, that is where our main man Manmohan Singh found himself over this Indian-US nuke deal. A main party named BJP declared that India‘s entering this agreement with the US would compromise their national security by limiting their weapons program.  Worse yet, a bunch of Commie/Marxist parties declared their boycott of the nuke deal on the grounds that it made India a subservient pawn to the ‘imperialist policies of the U.S.A.’. Dudes, did anyone tell those Indian commies that the Cold War is over? Read the papers man!

Anyway, this rant is over. End game: Prime Minister Singh had to throw in the towel this weekend.  If he would have pushed harder, there was a threat that the BJP and the commies could have gone for the government crash, so Singh let it drop. Singh has egg all over his face, because he swore this deal was going to go thru, and now he kind of looks like a dork.  The Bush administration/The US takes a serious hit too because this was one of the only bright spots of foreign policy they have been able to muster for 7 years. They were really fired up to be making India a stronger ally. Oh well, that may still come to pass. But for now: no nukes in India, India is tied to oil dependence, and the US will have to figure out some new ways for people around the word to stop using all the oil that we want for ourselves. Go get’em fellas!

Turkey is Steamed and Ready; but this ain’t no Thanksgiving for US

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Damn! I hate reporting from an active war zone! I always end up spilling a martini or two in the foxhole, and it’s so much harder to get my groove on with gunfire ringing out in the background.  Plus, I just don’t feel as sexy in a plaid flak jacket…but I digress as usual.  So where the hell am I? Well, I heard that you folks were flabbergasted by some strange events in the US Congress which may result in Turkish forces invading Iraq? Huh? Does that sound as confusing to you as it does to me? Indeed! So I came here to the Turkish/Iraqi border to witness the events as they unfold…and to fill you in on all the fuss and furor….

Bush warns Congress not to recognise Armenian ‘genocide’

Turkey protests approval of bill in US House

Turkey warns US of repercussions to genocide vote

Tension rises on Turkey-Iraq border

PM Erdoğan says Turkey doesn’t need permission to move on Northern Iraq

U.S. Officials Urge Restraint From Turkey

So what the hell is Turkey so pissed about? And what is this potential genocide business? And why is the White House really really really concerned about it? And how could a simple committee vote in the US on a 100 year old slaughter lead to Turkish troops invading Iraq in the next 100 hours?  Damn! That’s a lot of questions, which demand a lot of answers my plaid friends! But despite the appearance of complication, these issues are all actually fairly easy to relate to each other…and easy for us to figure out what’s going on.  The only damn confusing part of this whole story is why this snowball of shit has started rolling down the hill in the first place…..but first, to the facts of things we can follow… 

For this excursion, we have to get Sherman to set the ‘way-back’ machine for over 90 years ago, in what is now the sovereign state of Turkey. Back then it was a center of the crumbling Ottoman Empire, an old-school imperial power that at its height controlled most of the Arabian peninsula, North Africa, and even southeast Europe.  But by the time World War One gets started, this empire is a disaster! Internally corrupt, stagnate, weak, and technologically backwards, the Ottomans as a ruling line were already on their deathbed…in fact, a group of secularist named ‘the Young Turks’ (what a sweet ass nickname!) had already taken over the government in an attempt to reform and strengthen the failing state.

But it was too little too late. Turkey entered WW1 on the side of the Central Powers, and decided to hasten the process of their own demise by starting a land war with Russia in the Caucuses region of western Turkey. Unfortunately for the Young Turks, their team sucked, and the Russian war was a disaster.  Why is all this shit important for today’s stories? Because there were about 2 million ethnic Armenian folks hanging out in western Turkey at the time, and some of them were agitating for a separate state for themselves (everyone knew the Ottomans were crumbling). And the Young Turks accused those Armenians of assisting the Russians during the war in order to secure their own independence….which severely pissed off the Turks! Subsequently, the Young Turks organized a horrific campaign of disaster against those Armenians as retribution for their acts of aiding and abetting the Ruskies. 

Now let’s stop the boat for a minute and answer a few questions. Were some Armenians agitating for independence? Yep, as were a shitload of other ethnic groups under the Ottoman umbrella. Did some of those Armenians assist the Russians? Surely some of them did, but how many is anybody’s guess. Did the Young Turks burn, loot, pillage, torture, maim, deport, and outright kill about 1-1.5 million Armenians in 1915-17? Absolutely; no one is disputing that fact, not even the current Turkish government. So why are these events suddenly in the news, with a variety of huge repercussions for global events? Ah…that will take some more explaining…

As referenced in the above stories, a US House of Representatives committee just voted on a bill to recognize this Ottoman event as a genocide. Genocide: the deliberate and systematic destruction of an ethnic, religious or national group. Damn, that’s a word that pisses people off every time its uttered. And this time its Turkey‘s turn to be pissed about it.  And my friends they are fucking hot and bothered beyond belief!

As soon as the White House caught wind of this bill, President Bush issued a very heavy handed warning to the folks on the committee.  Heavy. Like, “hey don’t do this shit, please, this is more grief than we want to deal with right now!”  But the bill passed anyway after much debate—this is just a committee bill by the way; it still has to go to the entire House floor for a vote, maybe as early as this week.  Bill or law, the shit hit the fan anyway. Turkey called back its US ambassador, there have been protests outside the US embassy in Turkey, as well as protests in DC, and the Turkish leadership has hinted at various retaliatory measures that are being considered.

Retaliatory measures? What retaliatory measures? What the hell could Turkey do to the US? Oh, you would be surprised my friends! It is well understood by the White House and by the US military that without Turkish help and support there would be no supply lines fueling US forces in Iraq. On top of that, Turkey is a NATO member, which means it is also the refueling and re-supplying launching pad for US forces in Afghanistan, which is a NATO campaign. Long story short, if Turkey gets pissed enough at the US, it can totally screw-up all current military operations in the Middle East. And I mean totally screw-up.

Due to its strategic location, it is the only participating country that truly wields the power to utterly alter the US game plan in both of those conflicts. You dig what I’m saying? If Poland decides to pull out of Iraq; the US loses troop support. If Great Britain decides to pull out; then the US loses troop and material support. If Australia decides to pull out; the US loses the trained bomb-sniffing dingo unit. But if Turkey pulls out? Ouch! All major supply lines have to be re-routed. Most military and supply flights lift off out of US airbases in Turkey, so all those would be gone. And it would be a tremendous blow to morale to lose the only participating Muslim country in what is otherwise a big ‘Christian’/‘West’ campaign in the Middle East.  Are you starting to see why President Bush and Condoleezza Rice are really upset about this shit?

But Turkey can do even more to frustrate the US right now…and they are getting ready to actually do it! As referenced in the stories above, Turkey is about to launch a force of Turkish troops into northern Iraq for reasons that have nothing to do with the current US war. The Turks are talking about sending in forces to try and nab a bunch of radical Kurdish terrorist named the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) who are operating out of Iraq, and who recently blew up some shit and killed 30 people in Turkey.

Now I don’t want to get into the particulars of that mess in this forum today, but I do want you to understand this: before that genocide vote last week, the US probably could have talked the Turks out of doing this—but now all bets are off! The Turks are so pissed that they currently don’t give a shit what the US wants…and thus are probably going to go forward with their invasion, I’m guessing this week!  Ha! And watch for this: the Turks will probably invade on the same day that the Armenian genocide bill goes up for the vote on the House floor! Talk about rubbing salt in the wound!

So the US administration is flustered, flabbergasted, and frustrated by this congressional gesture to label the Armenian massacre as a genocide. Almost as much as the Turks are. The US does not want Turkey invading northern Iraq…the last thing anybody wants is yet another entity blowing up shit in this basket-case Iraq catastrophe. What’s worse, the US is deathly afraid of losing Turkish support for conducting war.  And what’s even worse than that is the possibility of ‘the West’ losing Turkey as a strategic ally altogether. Damn! That would totally suck for the ‘West’ Why?

As alluded to already, Turkey has been a staunch US ally in NATO ever since the organization was formed in 1949. They have played a major part in every NATO operation, and have supporting virtually every US endeavor within NATO and even most US policies outside of the NATO sphere. Turkey is the most ‘westward’ leaning Muslim state…doing most of its business with the ‘West’ and even petitioning for entry into the EU. Most importantly, Turkey is the best example of a fully secular, fully democratic, AND fully Muslim state in the world.  Hell, it’s the ONLY one of its kind anywhere near the Middle East.  Turley is the state that the ‘West’ would like all the other Middle Eastern states to emulate and copy.  So if ‘the West’ loses Turkey…..hell, I don’t know…it don’t look good…the US, ‘the West’, and democracy won’t have too many friends in the neighborhood anymore. You see what I’m saying?

To finish this rant, why would this Armenian genocide deal have come up at this particular time anyway? That does appear to be the $25,000 dollar question. I have no real idea why it is happening right this second in the US. The current government of Turkey is historically ‘unrelated’ to the Young Turks that committed the heinous acts of 1915-17. To my knowledge, there is no requests for punishment of anybody (they are all dead) or for any type of reparations or fees to survivors (they are all dead too).  But I can tell you this little piece of insider’s info: its not the first country to go through this Armenian debate.  22 countries have officially recognized the incident as genocide, and 40 of the 50 states in the US have as well. 

Of particular note, I want to mention just a few of these: Austria, Cyprus, and most importantly France. France even passed a law making it a crime to openly deny the event as a genocide. Why would I point this out? Only to make the not-so-obvious connection that these European states (especially France) are extremely opposed to allowing Turkey into the EU.  Starting to get the picture here?  For the Frenchies, its an overt ploy to de-rail the Turkish/EU negotiations.

But for the US and the Middle East, how pissed off Turkey gets over this issue may very well have severe repercussions for the events of this week…of this year….and the long-term future of the region, and the world.

Hmmmm…Strange…..How bizarre is it that big, global-shaping events hinge on the use—or failure to use—a single word to describe a century-old catastrophe.

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